The approach used a refined version of the methods established by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (Citation2005), which created a hybrid historical meteorological dataset based on three primary data resources: a) monthly HCN data in the United States and the similar AHCCD datasets in Canada, b) daily data from the cooperative station network in the United States (co-op stations) and similar data from Environment Canada, and c) a monthly climatology (19712000) for precipitation and daily minimum and maximum temperatures at 30 arc-second resolution produced using the PRISM (Daly, Gibson, Taylor, Johnson, & Pasteris, Citation2002; Daly, Neilson, & Phillips, Citation1994; DiLuzio, Johnson, Daly, Eischeid, & Arnold, Citation2008). Future work on the project will likely focus on expanding the number of streamflow sites for which products are available (e.g., inclusion of additional sites in coastal Oregon in the site-specific products) and providing a comprehensive suite of products associated with CMIP5 results (Taylor, Stouffer, & Meehl, Citation2012) associated with IPCC AR5. To learn about our use of cookies and how you can manage your cookie settings, please see our Cookie Policy. Flooding in these basins is sensitive to both warming (which raises snow lines and effectively enlarges the contributing basin area during most flood events) and increasing winter precipitation. 0 Note the relative insensitivity of SWE to warming in the coldest, and most heavily snowmelt-dominant, areas in the northern tip of the CRB in British Columbia in comparison with the rest of the domain. These parameters were chosen because they strongly affect the timing and volume of runoff production in the model simulations and are, in general, not available from observed data. The basalt mostly came from fissures in the ground, perhaps sourced from a hot spot that is now beneath the Yellowstone Caldera. The macroscale hydrologic model used in the CBCCSP is the VIC model (Cherkauer & Lettenmaier, Citation2003; Liang, Lettenmaier, Wood, & Burges, Citation1994) implemented at 1/16 degree resolution. We should note that glaciers and deep groundwater (e.g., contributions to streamflow from large confined aquifers) are not simulated by the VIC model, and impacts in areas profoundly influenced by these hydrologic features may not be well characterized in the simulations (Wenger et al., Citation2010). completed or are ongoing in the Columbia River Basin. In relatively wet and cool areas along the coast and at high elevation in the northern parts of the basin, summer AET is energy limited; therefore, rising temperatures result in increases in AET. These include the full meteorological forcings for the model (variables 18), a suite of water balance variables simulated by the model (variables 916), and five different PET metrics (variables 1721) (Elsner et al., Citation2010). The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project (CBCCSP) was conceived as a comprehensive hydrologic database to support climate change planning, impacts assessment, and adaptation in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) by a diverse user community with varying technical capacity over a wide range of spatial scales. (Citation2010). The CBCCSP was designed from the outset to support users with a very wide range of technical sophistication and capacity. Report of A.G. Crook Company to Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR. Current weather in Queens Cup Basin and forecast for today, tomorrow, and next 14 days Register a free Taylor & Francis Online account today to boost your research and gain these benefits: An Overview of the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project: Approach, Methods, and Summary of Key Results, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences , University of Notre Dame , Notre Dame , Indiana , USA, Technical Service Center 86-68210, US Bureau of Reclamation , Denver , Colorado , USA, Climate Impacts Group , University of Washington , Seattle , Washington , USA, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, and Climate Impacts Group , University of Washington , Seattle , Washington , USA, Adaptation to Future Water Shortages in the United States Caused by Population Growth and Climate Change, Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture of the United States, Climate Change and Future Wildfire in the Western United States: An Ecological Approach to Nonstationarity, Crossscale interactions dictate regional lake carbon flux and productivity response to future climate, Drought Conditions Maximize the Impact of High-Frequency Flow Variations on Thermal Regimes and Biogeochemical Function in the Hyporheic Zone, Fine-scale environmental DNA sampling reveals climate-mediated interactions between native and invasive trout species, Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia, Geomorphological principles for phased sediment management, How Do Modeling Decisions Affect the Spread Among Hydrologic Climate Change Projections? Each product is provided as a gridded file (one file for each variable and calendar month) in ASCII format. Text files (six per figure) providing all the ensemble data used to construct each panel in the figure are also provided on the CBCCSP website. Observations around the world demonstrate that the global atmosphere has been warming rapidly since the 1970s, with temperatures up an average of 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit in that time and expected to increase between 1 and 4 degrees by the 2030s, Pytlak said. The Columbia Basin-Boundary region is already experiencing a climate that's different from 50 years ago. Atmosphere Ocean 51. Fig. 3. Uniqueness is also evident by looking at the Columbia River Basin. A remote sensing approach, The NorWeST Summer Stream Temperature Model and Scenarios for the Western U.S.: A Crowd-Sourced Database and New Geospatial Tools Foster a User Community and Predict Broad Climate Warming of Rivers and Streams, The coastal streamflow flux in the Regional Arctic System Model, Tidal-Fluvial and Estuarine Processes in the Lower Columbia River: II. Columbia River Basin Basin Overview . The summary figures for water balance variables at each site have the same format, two examples of which are shown in Fig. In addition, some observed streamflow data are suitable for use as natural data if the effects of storage and diversions are relatively small (e.g., for the USGS Hydro-Climatic Data Network streamflow sites). 2860, 59th Legislature (WA 2006). The study also used the ColSim reservoir operations model (Hamlet & Lettenmaier, Citation1999b) to estimate water deliveries to the Columbia Basin Project (the primary irrigation project supplied by water from Grand Coulee Dam) under future climate scenarios using streamflows generated by the integrated VIC/CropSyst model. Blue lines show average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). These data were compiled from naturalization studies prepared for the BPA (Crook, Citation1993), WDOE (Flightner, Citation2008), OWRD (Cooper, Citation2002), IDWR, and the USBR. This diagnosis is confirmed by the R 2 values for the same sites, which are generally higher and more consistent with neighbouring values over the entire domain. Incidence of Bactericera cockerelli (Hemiptera: Triozidae) under different pesticide regimes in the lower Columbia basin. Changes in the 1 April snowpack have been shown to depend strongly on winter temperature regimes (Hamlet, Mote, Clark, & Lettenmaier, Citation2005; Mote, Citation2006; Mote et al., Citation2005). These results support the hypothesis that widespread increases in winter landslide risks and sediment transport in rivers are likely to accompany increased winter precipitation and loss of interannual snowpack in mountain watersheds. These data are summarized in figures and tables prepared for each streamflow site discussed in Section 4. Typical month of historical flooding events is shown by the colour of the dots in the scatter plot (legend inset in the upper right corner), by permission of I. Tohver, A.F. Implications of global climate change for snowmelt hydrology in the 21st century, Modeling snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments, Uncertainties in hydrologic and climate change impact analyses in headwater basins of British Columbia. This is a good example of the use of the study data to support relatively fine-scale planning needs. The CBCCSP was founded on the basis of regional partnerships to support a shared need for climate change scenarios and directly encompassed the transboundary nature of the CRB's management framework by including both US and Canadian interests in an integrated and comprehensive data resource. To support ecosystem research and impacts assessment, CIG extended the project to include specific meteorological and hydrological variables needed to support ecological studies (see discussion in Section 3). From ecosystems, communities, and infrastructure, to our way of lifeeverything will be affected. A 20 percent chance of rain showers in the evening. To select an appropriate group of specific streamflow locations to include in the study to meet these diverse needs, the primary funding agencies for the study and several other key water management agencies in the region (MDNR, IDWR, USBR, and USACE) were asked to submit prioritized lists of streamflow locations. A comprehensive website was to be developed to serve all the data produced by the study, at no cost, to the general public, management professionals agency staff members, scientific researchers, private sector consultants, etc. How do I view content? 5. Interactive influences of climate change and agriculture on aquatic habitat in a Pacific Northwestern watershed, PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION, River Bed Elevation Variability Reflects Sediment Supply, Rather Than Peak Flows, in the Uplands of Washington State, Springs as hydrologic refugia in a changing climate? The results were only slightly better than those achieved in the large-scale calibration. In 2021, these livestock operations alone accounted for 75% of deforestation on public lands, according to a study by the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM).. Sites without modified or natural flow estimates are shown in yellow. 8) and warmer and drier summers (which increase PET) (Fig. (Citation2010) over the entire PNW (Tohver et al. (2005). Thursday Sunny. 12 Changes in monthly mean total column soil moisture (OctoberSeptember) for three representative river sites in the PNW: Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam (left), Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon (centre), and Yakima River at Parker (right). The same procedure is followed for estimating extreme low flows, except the lowest 7-day flow is extracted for each water year, and 7Q10 (the extreme 7-day low flow with a return interval of 10 years) is estimated. One of the major climate change impacts already being seen in the Columbia Basin has been the decreases in winter snowpack, the increase in winter precipitation events, and the resulting shifts in flow regime in the Columbia River and its tributaries. In addition to the time series gridded data, the long-term monthly mean data for each hydrologic variable, for each scenario, is provided in GridASCII format, compatible with ArcGIS. Right panel: Historical and projected future watershed classification (rain-dominant, transitional (mixed-rain-and-snow), snow-dominant) for 10-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds, based on the long-term mean of the SWE2PR for each watershed. The primary activities and objectives of the RMJOC studies are described in the Executive Summary of the project report (US Department of the Interior, Citation2012): The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) collaborated to adopt climate change and hydrology datasets for their longer-term planning activities in the ColumbiaSnake River Basin (CSRB). It was also well understood by practitioners at CIG that aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem researchers, managers, and stakeholders needed a similar, but more comprehensive, data resource to support long-term planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies at the landscape scale. 8). Funding was received by WSU to carry out research quantifying crop water demand, water resources system performance, and economic impacts under current climate conditions and a range of future climate scenarios. Special thanks to Kurt Unger and Ken Slattery, who were the primary architects of the CBCCSP at WDOE. Hydrologic climate change scenarios for the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin and coastal drainages. July temperatures hover in the 90s, with several afternoons during the summer pushing the thermometer reading as high as 100 to 105 degrees. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Elsner MM, et al. The VIC implementations make use of preprocessed soil and vegetation databases for the basin of interest. Les plus fortes augmentations dans les crues sont dans les bassins de pluie et neige mles dont les tempratures actuelles au milieu de l'hiver sont quelques degrs du point de conglation. Citation2000) were selected as the basis for the study because they provide a) a wide range of plausible outcomes while also reflecting some potential GHG mitigation by the end of the twenty-first century, and b) most of the approximately 20 GCM projections associated with the CMIP3 archived runs from both emission scenarios (Mote & Salath, Citation2010). Rain dominant basins (DJF temperatures greater than 2C) show moderate increases in flood risk (primarily reflecting increasing storm intensity in the simulations), whereas snowmelt-dominant basins that currently flood in June show relatively little change in flood risk. Evidence includes increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. The Columbia River is the fourth largest river in North America. USFWS (US Fish & Wildlife Service). Figure 1 shows a map of the approximately 300 streamflow locations that were ultimately compiled from these lists for inclusion in the study (a spreadsheet listing these sites is available on the CBCCSP website (CIG, Citation2013a)). This study represents one of the first attempts to dynamically couple a sophisticated, physically based hydrologic model with a detailed crop model to estimate the integrated impacts on water supply and crop viability at a range of spatial scales. A number of sub-basins are nested within each other, as shown in the right panel along with their relative sizes. Blue traces show monthly averages for historical conditions; the pink bands show the range of projected change associated with each scenario and future time period; the red lines show the average of the future ensemble. These techniques remove systematic biases in the simulations of routed streamflow to produce products that closely match the long-term statistics of a natural or modified flow dataset for a particular site. unpublished manuscript). In other words, dry areas east of the Cascade Range have less base-flow potential to lose with increasing evapotranspiration and loss of summer precipitation because the soil moisture is already at very low levels in late summer. The Columbia Basin-Boundary region is already experiencing a climate thats different from 50 years ago. Although results could potentially vary in different areas of the model domain, these results support the hypothesis that only modest improvements in validation statistics would result from individual calibration of additional streamflow sites within each sub-basin. 'High Uncertainty' is indicated when Mahalanobis Distance is >1. Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA, Regional scale hydrology: I. Formulation of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model, A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production, Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State, Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California under two emissions scenarios, Uncertainty in projections of streamflow changes due to climate change in California, Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors, The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research, Assessing regional impacts and adaptation strategies for climate change: The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment as a case study, Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin, Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Data from the CBCCSP are currently supporting two CIG studies funded by the LCCs and the CSC, including a study of impacts to wetlands in the PNW (funded by the North Pacific LCC and the PNWCSC) and a study assessing climatic and hydrologic extremes and their effects on ecosystems over the western United States (funded by the PNWCSC). The BCSD runs are transient runs from 1950 to 2098 or 1950 to 2099 (depending on the GCM). Primary support for the project was provided by WDOE, with additional major support provided by the BPA, NWPCC, BCME, OWRD, and CTED via the 2009 WACCIA (http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia.shtml) (Miles et al., Citation2010). Act relating to state agency climate leadership, S. 5560, 61st Legislature (WA 2009). Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Preparing for climatic change: The water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest. This approach was partly based on practical limitations on time and computational resources but was also informed by previous experience using the VIC model at finer spatial scales. Figure 4 shows a flow chart of these post-processing steps. Yakima River Basin Study Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. 10 Left panel: Changes in Q100 for 297 streamflow locations expressed as a ratio of Q100 for the future period to Q100 for the historical period based on the average of the nine or ten HD scenarios for the B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods. Blue dots represent the historical values; the red dots show the range of values from the HD ensemble (10 or 9 values); black dashes show the mean of the HD ensemble, and the orange dots show the single value calculated for the CD projections. %PDF-1.6 % To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below: Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content? Why is a 1C increase such a big deal? Rain-dominant basins in the United States (e.g., Chehalis River at Grand Mound in Fig. Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. endstream endobj 96 0 obj <. Key products from the study include detailed summary data for about 300 river sites in the PNW and monthly GIS products for 21 hydrologic variables over the entire study domain. Daily and monthly average streamflow for all projections listed in Table 1 and, where possible, daily and monthly bias-corrected streamflow values. Other climate change studies on the Columbia River and its sub-basins followed (Cohen, Miller, Hamlet, & Avis, Citation2000; Elsner et al., Citation2010; Hamlet, Citation2003, Citation2011; Hamlet, Lee, Mickelson, & Elsner, Citation2010b; Lee, Fitzgerald, Hamlet, & Burges, Citation2011; Lee, Hamlet, Fitzgerald, & Burges, Citation2009; NWPCC, Citation2005; Payne, Wood, Hamlet, Palmer, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004; Snover, Hamlet, & Lettenmaier, Citation2003; Vano et al., Citation2010). Figure 1. Snover, A. K., Hamlet, A. F., Lee, S.-Y., Mantua, N. J., Salath, E. P. Jr, Steed, R., & Tohver, I. Building the Columbia Basin-Boundary Region's Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change. Read on for information on our current project. Temperature and precipitation vary greatly with elevation, but in the central basin January average daily temperatures are between about 25 and 30 F (4 and 1 C), and July averages are mostly between 70 and 75 F (21 and 24 C). For information on past projects, see our Projects Archive. These products are based solely on the CD and HD projections listed in Table 1. Fig. Here we will review a few important aspects of the basic implementation to help orient the reader and will then focus most of our attention on the additional implementation and calibration tasks carried out during the CBCCSP. We use cookies to improve your website experience. 5 Howick Place | London | SW1P 1WG. Detailed information about the study can be found under Documentation, while model results can be found under Data. Lee. In other words, although at these sites the model results do not match the observations in the absolute sense (large bias), the relative changes follow the observed variations quite well (high R 2). Warming of the global climate is unequivocal. The strategy for model calibration used in the CBCCSP was to calibrate 11 relatively large sub-basins within the domain (Fig. Determining surface water availability in Oregon. The scope of work for the project called for hydrologic modellers at CIG to produce the following results: A suite of up-to-date hydrologic projections for the entire CRB (including portions of the basin in Canada) based on the CMIP3/AR4 (Meehl et al., Citation2007) GCM projections. The MRB encompasses 24 terrestrial ecosystems, providing habitat for 100 species of mammals, reptiles, and amphibians Its floodplain supports 40% of the waterfowl and wading birds in North America, and the MRB's . Les rsultats de ltude montrent de profonds changements dans l'accumulation de neige au printemps et des dplacements radicaux de neige ou pluie et neige mles vers principalement pluie dans presque tout le domaine. Les simulations dcoulements de crue et dtiage augmentent en intensit pour la plupart des sites fluviaux compris dans cette tude. As an integrated priority, the Trust has integrated climate resilience into its strategic priorities by supporting: wildfire risk reduction and job creation through the Columbia Basin Wildfire Resiliency Initiative energy retrofits, repairs and alternative energy generation at community-purpose buildings through the Non-profit Sustainability - Building Support Grants
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